Q3 Economic Data Will Be Announced Central Bank Or When Necessary To Start A Comprehensive Interest Rate Cut.

The three quarter economic data will be released soon, and the downward pressure on economic growth is expected to be relatively large. Some indicators indicate that insufficient demand is continuing or even aggravating. Especially, it is still difficult to raise the financing difficulties of enterprises.

Monetary policy is expected to take the initiative. The central bank may take various measures to reduce the financing cost of the real economy, expand the scope of directional interest rate cuts, and even launch a comprehensive interest rate reduction if necessary.

The central bank's three quarter monetary policy meeting proposed that the current "economic situation" should not be underestimated. This statement is more emphasis on the current economic complexity than the two quarter monetary policy meeting.

The three quarter GDP situation is not optimistic, the fourth quarter pressure is still larger.

First, the rapid decline in real estate investment. In August, the cumulative growth rate of commercial housing development in the whole country has slowed down to 13.2% over the same period last year, down 6.1 percentage points from the same period last year. It is expected that the fourth quarter will further decline, which is the biggest factor of drag growth.

Two, with the completion of investment projects in recent years, new projects are limited this year, and new growth momentum is not enough.

Three, PPI has been negative for 30 consecutive months, and the manufacturing sector is facing a pressure of deflation.

Four, the risk appetite of financial institutions has declined and financial support has weakened.

Most notably, the real interest rate of the real economy is relatively high.

Central bank data show that in June, the weighted average interest rate of loans for non-financial enterprises and other sectors was 6.96%.

Considering that the current PPI is running in a negative interval for a long time, the financing cost of enterprises is generally over 8%, and the financing cost of SMEs is even higher, or even more than 10%.

The return on investment of Chinese enterprises is decreasing year by year.

There has been a study of the rate of return on investment after calculating the adjusted price, which has dropped to a new low of 2.7% in 2012.

The report of the World Federation of large enterprises shows that China's total factor productivity growth rate dropped from 4% in 2007 to 2008-2012 in -1%.

Microcosmic evidence is more.

From the EBITDA index of debt / non-financial listed companies, the index is 4.5-5 times in 2007, and the index has reached 15-16 times in 2014.

If the financing cost is 7%-8%, it means that all business cash flow can only be used to pay interest burden.

At present, the high real interest rate is an important sticking point of domestic demand shortage. It is an important bottleneck for adjusting the economic structure, encouraging the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, private enterprises, and promoting the construction of urbanization.

Reducing the financing cost of enterprises has become an important target for the steady growth of monetary policy.

Under the background of the downward pressure on the economy, there are three characteristics of reducing monetary policy.

First, from the overall perspective, there is still room for downward trend in interest rates.

Interest rates should be adjusted to inflation and expectations.

Judging from the trend of price movements, as the tail factor has dropped, the CPI growth in September will probably fall considerably, and will return to below 2%. PPI's year-on-year increase shows that there is a continuous deflation in the manufacturing industry.

Looking at the four quarter, the current price of pork is still likely to be negative * compared with the same period last year, and the trend is rising. The price of grain is generally stable. The fourth quarter CPI is rising at a low level.

The European Central Bank once again increased monetary easing, which is conducive to expanding our monetary policy space and guiding the real interest rate downward.

The two is the "interest rate cut" from the beginning, the future may continue to reduce interest rates.

In September 30th, the central bank launched the new housing loan policy to reduce the cost of the first suite and improve the demand of the residents and promote real estate consumption.

The new mortgage policy will result in a targeted interest rate cut in the real estate sector.

In the future, it can implement wider range orientation in more fields and industries.

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We need to see that directional operation is also facing embarrassment.

Directional operation mainly plays a guiding role in signal and structure, but in the long run, economic restructuring and

Upgrading and the optimization of credit resources are fundamentally dependent on the reform of the system and mechanism, giving full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources and the long-term strategy of directing operations.

The three is the three quarter to be announced.

To show that the steady growth is facing greater challenges, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut can not be ruled out.

On the one hand, the long-term use of directional operation will inevitably lead to differences in bank capital cost and even directly affect profits, which is not conducive to the implementation of interest rate marketization.

On the other hand, in the long run, reducing the financing cost of enterprises, especially the financing costs of small and medium-sized enterprises, can be resolved without monetary policy. Fiscal policy is more effective through discount and tax reduction.

In the short term, under the current situation that fiscal policy is difficult to exert great force, it may be necessary for the central bank to regulate the benchmark interest rate.

Although lending rates have been liberalized by banks themselves, benchmark interest rates still play an important role.