The Increase Of Tariffs In The Trade War Directly Led To The Rise Of The Import Cost Of American Cotton

In January 2025, China imported about 150000 tons of cotton, an increase of about 10000 tons month on month and a year-on-year decrease of about 56.8%. In February 2025, China imported about 120000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of about 30000 tons, or 60.9%. From January to February 2025, China imported about 260000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of about 58.7%. In 2024/25 (2024.9-2025.2), China imported about 750000 tons of cotton, down 57.1% year on year.

In terms of price, in January 2025, Qingdao Port (601298), the average price of Brazilian cotton M1-1/8 in 2024 will be 17400-17500 yuan/ton. The import price of cotton in January 2025 will be 1881.55 dollars/ton, down 6.87 dollars/ton from December 2024, a decline of 0.36%, and the import amount will be 281 million dollars.

In terms of importing countries, the top three cotton imports of China in January 2025 are Brazil, the United States and Australia; Among them, Brazilian cotton still ranks first, with the import volume of 88500 tons, accounting for about 59.5%, an increase of 17.4% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 53.35%; US cotton imports reached 29600 tons, accounting for about 19.9%, up 204.51% month on month and down 68.06% year on year; Australia imported 15500 tons of cotton, accounting for about 10.4%, down 53.4% month on month and 34.78% year on year; Kazakhstan's cotton import volume ranked fourth at 5900 tons, accounting for about 3.97%, a month on month decrease of 51.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.66%.

In terms of import provinces and cities, the top four provinces and cities in China's cotton import volume in January 2025 are Shandong Province, 68200 tons, ranking first, accounting for about 45.7%, an increase of 44.3% month on month and a decrease of 35.9% year on year; Beijing has 28600 tons, accounting for 19.2%, 15.2% month on month, 77.9% year on year; Jiangsu Province has 24500 tons, accounting for about 16.4%, up 15.5% month on month and down 36.4% year on year; Shanghai has 7200 tons, accounting for about 4.8%, an increase of 24.5% month on month and a decrease of 40.5% year on year.

President Trump of the United States signed an executive order on February 1, announcing that all Chinese goods imported to the United States would be subject to a further 10% tariff, which came into effect on February 4. Less than a month later, on March 3, the US government announced that it would impose a further 10% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the US on the grounds of fentanyl. On the afternoon of March 4, China issued counter-measures, imposing a 15% tariff on cotton originating in the United States. China is the world's largest cotton consumer and importer, while the United States is an important cotton supplier to China. The tariff increase directly led to the increase in the import cost of American cotton and the weakening of the import price advantage. In 2024, China will import about 800000 tons of cotton from the United States, accounting for about 30% of the total cotton imports. After the imposition of tariffs, the cost of American cotton imports rose.