Dawn Of Ethylene Glycol Is Expected To Usher In A Breakthrough Market

During the holiday period, ethylene glycol continued to ferment, and the market opened sharply, but the panic lasted only two transactions. After a short break of 50 US dollars / barrel, the crude oil rebounded from the bottom. It had recorded eight consecutive trading days, and the cumulative rebound reached 8%. Now the trend of the cross market, so that the current cost of ethylene glycol support is obvious again, at present, the third trading day, the market has been in a stalemate trend, the spot price around 4300-4400 yuan / ton interval finishing, but recently glycol has the end of the horizontal disk, there are signs of a breakthrough rise, let's analyze the logical support of the above judgment.

The darkest hour has passed, and the bottom of glycol has been verified.

The first two trading days after the Spring Festival are the darkest time of ethylene glycol. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil continued to decline, and the cumulative decline reached more than 10%. However, after the opening of the domestic financial market, stock market futures were everywhere, and most of the futures products showed a downward trend. Under this background, ethylene glycol dropped to the lowest price near 4250 and did not continue downward. This shows that the important support position of 4200 yuan / ton is obvious in this year's market.

International crude oil prices continue to rebound, ethylene glycol cost support efforts to strengthen

The glycol plant processes are all in a state of loss. With the rise of the cost side, ethylene glycol's cost pressure will greatly increase if the price is maintained.

After the holidays, the main port inventory of ethylene glycol dropped sharply compared with last year. Although the holiday of this Spring Festival is super long, and the public health year has led to the delayed start of the terminal weaving work, the polyester operating rate has continued to decline. According to long data, the current polyester operating rate is only 58%, which is 30% lower than that of the same period last year. There was no obvious accumulation of storehouse. As of 20 days, the inventory of East China's main port was near 580 thousand tons, compared with 1 million 100 thousand tons in the same period last year, and the inventory dropped by 47% over the same period last year. Even under the ultra-low inventory base, even if Zhejiang petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical produce normally, the monthly supply will increase by about 100 thousand tons, and it will not be able to reach the same level in the same period in two months.

Relatively low price is the biggest temptation to capital.

At the close of 20, the closing price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4400 yuan / ton, while the price of ethylene glycol was 4900 yuan / ton in the same period last year. The price of ethylene glycol decreased by 500 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, and the decline rate was over 10%. On the above, we also mentioned that the bottom of ethylene glycol was supported by 4200-4300 yuan / ton, and the price now is near 200 yuan / ton from the bottom, in such a small space. Short profits are more difficult to earn profits, and on the contrary, it is easier to attract interest from many funds. Once the trend is formed, ethylene glycol has greater imagination.

Conclusion: In conclusion, ethylene glycol has been showing signs of breaking up nearly 10 days later. At present, spot prices have exceeded 4400 boxes, and the main contract of the futures market has also seen a breakthrough trend. Although the effectiveness of the breakthrough is yet to be tested, it has effectively broken into a big probability event.