Prices Of Raw Materials Are Soaring And Prices Are Hard To Predict.

Crude oil futures in the US WTI ended up nearly 13% in September 16th, due to the drastically reduced production of Saudi Arabia's oil processing facilities by UAVs, the largest single day increase since October. But only a day later, the news of the rapid resumption of Saudi Arabia quickly restored calm to the anxious market. At the close, WTI crude oil futures in October fell 5.7%, to 59.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil October contract fell 6.5%, at 64.46 U.S. dollars / barrel.

Polyester raw material staged "face changing" drama

Under the influence of such a sharp rise and fall of international oil prices, PTA, ethylene glycol and other polyester raw materials also staged a "face changing" good play.

On September 16th and 17, the 2001 main contracts of PTA futures rose 172 points and 112 points respectively, up 3.3% or 2.2%.

Similar to PTA, ethylene glycol has been affected by international oil prices, and has experienced several ups and downs. Its fluctuation has even exceeded PTA.

On September 16th and 17, the 2001 contracts for ethylene glycol futures rose 354 and 130 points, or 7.13%, 2.47%, 18 days.

Compared with PTA and ethylene glycol, the price of polyester filament is relatively strong. After the price rise of 16, 17 and two days, the price is basically stable, but with the price of PTA and ethylene glycol falling down, the price of polyester filament still has a low risk in the future.

Next, look at the production and sale of polyester in these days.

In September 15th, the Saudi incident just happened, and polyester production and marketing came to 120%.

In September 16th, international oil prices surged, and polyester production and sales rose to 270% at a time.

In September 17th, polyester raw materials prices continued upward, polyester production and sales fell to 90%;

In September 18th, oil prices dropped, polyester raw material prices dropped, and polyester production and marketing was 30-40%.

This shows that this round of international oil prices rose sharply, real production and marketing "explosion" only one day in September 16th, then production and sales will soon fall.

Why is polyester raw "not strong"?

The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak

Nowadays, a large number of weaving enterprises are affected by high inventory levels. The pressure of funds is very huge, and the funds invested in raw materials are limited.

For example, suppose that a weaving enterprise has 2 million 500 thousand assets for daily operation. According to past years, there are 1 million 200 thousand yuan of inventory cloth, 800 thousand yuan of stock materials in the 2 million 500 thousand li, and the remaining 500 thousand yuan for daily business turnover.

But the current situation is that the total assets are still 2 million 500 thousand yuan, but because of excessive inventory, the value has reached 1 million 800 thousand yuan, so the total funds left for raw materials and operations are only 700 thousand yuan. Because of the bad market situation, the capital recovery cycle is longer. The original 500 thousand yuan for production and operation has been overstretched, and the money left for raw materials is only 200 thousand yuan.

In this case, even if the raw material is going up, there is no money left to store up the goods. If we take money from the 500 thousand yuan of production and operation, we will have the risk of breaking up the capital chain; if we make a decision from the 1 million 800 thousand inventory, according to the current market, we only have to throw the goods one by one, throw the stock cloth and buy the raw materials and then produce it and then pile it into the warehouse. What is it?

Shocked by the sharp rise and fall of raw materials.

In addition to a distribution of bosses being dragged down by funds, there are also some cloth owners who are "learning good". In the middle of 7 and 8 months, there were several short-term raw material prices that had been surged due to the easing of Sino US trade relations, and each time they had just risen one or two days, they fell back. Many weaving bosses follow the past experience of buying or selling, and then buying raw materials when raw materials are rising.

It can be said that over the past two months, the news has been faced with the influence of polyester raw materials, that is, "good and bad spirits".

"Buying up or not buying" is equivalent to "taking up a plate"?

It can be said that starting from the second half of this year, the old experience of "buying up but not buying" on polyester raw materials is out of date.

In the past, the experience of "buying up or not buying" has worked. First, because weaving enterprises have money in their hands, two is because the market can pay for raw materials going up, and cloth prices can go up with the prices of raw materials. So polyester raw material prices and production and marketing will directly form a positive feedback, simply speaking, "buy more and buy more, buy more and more", although the boss of the weaving will complain, but in fact, as long as cloth can always sell, it is also profitable.

However, in today's market, the weaving enterprises do not have much money in hand. Secondly, there are so many goods on the market that cloth prices can not rise at a time, and no one "offers the market". In the words of cloth boss, now the market determines that the price of grey cloth is market demand, and has little to do with the price of raw materials. That being the case, the raw materials purchased at high places are naturally smashed.

The market is changing and the price of raw materials is hard to predict. In fact, there is a steelyard in the textile industry. To sum up, no matter what kind of raw material strategy is adopted, it is the best way to suit oneself.