Polyester Prices Hit A New Low In The Past Two Years Or Will Usher In An Inflection Point

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price trend of polyester filament in the past two years has been inverted "V", and has entered a downward trend in August. The price of polyester FDY and polyester DTY has reached a low level in the past two years.

As of August 12, 2019, the average price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) market was 7830 yuan / ton, the lowest price in nearly two years. Compared with 8674 yuan / ton in August 12, 2017, it fell 9.73%, the highest point in September 4, 2018, 12205 yuan / ton, down 35.85%.

The trend of polyester DTY is basically similar to that of polyester FDY. As of August 12, 2019, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elastic) reported 9080 yuan / ton, down 6.97% compared with 9760 yuan / ton in August 12, 2017, the highest point in September 8, 2018 was 13592 yuan / ton, down 33.20%.

Polyester POY (150D/48F) has hit the lowest point of 7526 yuan / ton in nearly two years on 10 June 2019, and the average price in August 12, 2019 is 7676 yuan / ton, the highest point in September 3, 2018 is 12252 yuan / ton, down 37.35%.

Raw materials market, as crude oil weakened, the price of PX and PTA went down, of which PX fell below the $800 mark. In August 9th, the Asian PX market FOB Korea closed at 770 U.S. dollars / ton, CFR China closed at 790 U.S. dollars / ton. Domestic PX price trend is relatively stable, maintained at 7000 yuan / ton nearby. Affected by Typhoon "Li Qi Ma", ports such as Ningbo, Shanghai and Lianyungang may be closed, to a certain extent, or help to increase the price of PX. On the device side, Fuhai set up two sets of 800 thousand tons of equipment were restarted in August 8th and August 15th; Liaoyang petrochemical PX overhaul has been restarted; Sinochem run PX device load gradually increased to 7-8; Hengyi Brunei PX project and Hainan refining PX two phase 1 million tons / year device is expected to three quarter production. After the new plant is put into operation, the PX will continue to be weak and consolidate.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market in August 7th was 5242 yuan / ton, the lowest point in the year, and then began to enter a small rebound channel. As of August 12th, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 5292 yuan / ton. 　　

Enterprise name	Capacity (10000 tons)	Device dynamics
Liwan polyester	Seventy	Parking in July 27th, restart to be determined
Jiaxing petrochemical	One hundred and fifty	It stopped short in July 27th and resumed in early August.
Fuhua chemical industry and trade	Four hundred and fifty	Restart in August 1st
Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fibre	Thirty-five	August 1st parking for 45 days
Jiarong petrochemical	Sixty	August 2nd parking for 2 weeks
Yangzi Petrochemical	Sixty-five	August 12th parking for 7-10 days
Hengli petrochemical	Two hundred and twenty	It is planned to overhaul production line 1 in August, and the maintenance time will be about 15 days.

In August, the PTA plant was restarted and overhauled. The 4 million 600 thousand tons of Fuhua chemical industry and trade, 1 million 500 thousand tons of Jiaxing Petrochemical Company were restarted, 350 thousand tons of Yizheng chemical fiber, 600 thousand tons of Jialong Petrochemical Company, and 650 thousand tons of Yangzi Petrochemical Company were stopped to check and repair. The current PTA start-up load was maintained near 92%.

With the PTA spot down, some profits have been transferred to downstream enterprises. Polyester factories have promoted sales and sales, and improved the market's demand for worries. Tiansheng and Xin Feng Ming plans to increase their load, raise their height and restart the Baosheng project. The overall start-up of polyester will be improved. The overall start-up of polyester will gradually recover to over 85%.

In July, the comprehensive start-up rate of Zhejiang, Zhejiang and loom showed a sharp decline, and 77% fell to near 62%. Until August 8th, the utilization rate of raw materials increased, and the operating rate increased to 71.5%. But this year, the industry profits are concentrated in the PTA field. The profit of the terminal textile enterprises is small, and the production enthusiasm is not high. With the current high temperature limit electricity and typhoon weather, some factories have begun to go on holiday. Terminal market follow-up is weak, downstream demand has not followed the looms to start up, in general, demand side confidence is relatively missing.

On the export side, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2019, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 27 billion 514 million US dollars, an increase of 11.64%, an increase of 2.09% over the same period last year. Among them, exports of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and articles) amounted to US $10 billion 767 million 300 thousand, an increase of 5.99% over the same period last year, and exports of garments (including garments and accessories) were US $16 billion 747 million, a decrease of 0.27% over the same period last year. In 2019 1-7, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 154 billion 48 million 200 thousand US dollars, down 0.10% from the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles was 68 billion 337 million 600 thousand US dollars, down 0.08% from the same period last year. The total export volume of garments was 85 billion 710 million 600 thousand US dollars, down 0.11% from the same period last year.

To sum up, Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the overall supply of PTA devices will be reduced in the next two weeks, and that the bad sentiment will be released when the polyester factory is resumed. The bottom of the PTA will rebound and the cost side will support the polyester price. At the same time, the recent PET factory's initiative to reduce sales promotion, after the volume, the pressure of inventory is greatly reduced, and near the "golden nine silver ten" for the textile traditional sales season, downstream terminal enterprises or usher in the procurement cycle, demand side has improved. It is expected that the polyester filament market will usher in a turning point, and it will remain stable. At the end of August, it will usher in a slight rebound in the preheating of purchasing.