"The Final Stability Of The Exchange Rate" Superimposed On The "Financial, Monetary Double Loose" Into The Stock Market

After the severe adjustment of the stock market disaster, the "pformation" was utilized.

"Logic" is still established, that is, positive feedback from the A share market and industrial development, which will continue to strengthen as the stock market stabilizes.

In the past two years, capital market and industrial development have formed positive feedback, that is, using capital market to revitalize the stock, allocate social funds and resources, promote industrial mergers and acquisitions, restructure, improve the performance of listed companies, form the A share market's money making effect, such a virtuous circle, and get out of a bull market under the background of economic depression.

However, the loss of leverage and the valuation and market bubble made the bull market logically damaged and the market plummeted.

Looking ahead: first, in September, the market entered a new equilibrium period, and the rebound was tortuous.

Second,

The short-term stabilization of exchange rate will help the market enter a new equilibrium period.

Premier Li declared that "the RMB does not have the basis for a significant depreciation". In the last three trading days, the US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate has dropped to below 6.5, and has stabilized.

However, the uncertainty of exchange rate is still in existence, and investors' uneasy feelings need time to calm them.

Third, cheap is the absolute principle. Whether it is value investment or growth investment, investors of various styles can find stocks that they consider themselves cheap.

For example, insurance, banks, automobiles, home appliances, building materials and other undervalued high dividends have entered the low risk area of value investment; new growth stocks, such as consumer services, medicine, TMT, advanced manufacturing and other stocks, have begun to attract the attention of selected stocks.

The attractiveness of medium and long-term investments helps stabilize the short-term panic chips and thereby block the adjustment of index.

Fourth, from the point of view of behavioral finance, the third rebound after the "stock market crash" may be difficult to surpass the first two times in the early July and early August, so the focus of the September market is not to rebound but to normalize the market.

Specific analysis:

(1)

Led by "slippery leader", it will restrict the continued rebound of the market in September.

In the era of mobile Internet, WeChat and micro-blog have obviously amplified the weakness of A group's mass human nature. Greed and fear can form a resultant force more quickly and fiercely. This is the two "stock crash" since June and the two "rebound" performance in 7 and August.

At present, after the repeated venting of extreme emotions, the amount of leveraged funds has declined significantly, and the institutional positions are also relatively low. Therefore, the "short" has lost the bargaining chip of short selling capacity, and can only rely on the dissemination of negative news; but the previous "bull" has now become a frightened bird and confidence remains to be fixed.

(2) after the "stability window", the slippery leader may gain a profit and cause setbacks.

After stabilizing the time window, some of the slippery leaders may be able to reduce the wait and see. But taking into account the failure of short selling power, the twists and turns of the September market will help to confirm whether the market is near the 2850 point.

(3) after this round of value stocks rebound, the follow-up needs new driving force, otherwise investors will carry out band operation around value stocks.

For example, "Shanghai Stock Exchange" has seen a small net outflow of 2 billion 410 million yuan on Friday, after three consecutive days of massive inflow of funds.

(4) once the rebound of the Shanghai composite index is close to the bottom of the last round of bailout, it will become a technical counter pressure.

Therefore, judging the fluctuation range of the September index is very low in innovation and low probability, but from the current point of view, the rebound space is also limited. Therefore, the focus of the market in September is not the short-term ribbed rebound of the game, but rather the patience and opportunity to seek opportunities for the medium term market.

Outlook two: the real opportunity lies in the medium-term layout, love in late autumn, and the power of reversal is brewing after the quarterly adjustment.

First, the profitability of China listed companies is at least not a drag. The key lies in the structural highlights supporting the direction of economic pformation.

A shares reported a year-on-year increase in net profit.

As of August 29th, 97% of A share listed companies have released their 2015 results.

Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders in 2014 Q4, 2015 Q1, 2015 Q2 grew by -5.21%, 2.84%, 13.59% respectively; the net profit of non-financial listed companies belonging to parent company in 2014 Q4, 2015 Q1, 2015 Q2 grew by -17.89%, -12.83% and 7.42% respectively.

Among them, the cost reduction led to gross margin, a 1.83 percentage point increase over the same period last year, which is the main reason for the growth.

In terms of structure, new industries, such as new consumption, new technology related media, catering and tourism, medicine, electronic components, computers and so on, represent a rapid growth in the direction of economic pformation.

Third, in the long run, after the quarterly adjustment, the "pitional bull market" that is used, that is, the medium and long-term logic that guides the economic pformation through capital market is still established.

We first proposed and persisted in this round of "pformed bull market". This is the three stage: bull market - bull market. In the early spring of April, the strategy of "fortune insurance" was put forward. The first stage was from last year to the two quarter of this year, the two quarter was the climax of the first phase of the bull market, and the adjustment of the "spire" and the second stage were quarterly or even annual adjustments.

The third stage is a continuous rise for several years. "

At the beginning of the June, the strategy of "restores energy and accumulated energy" put forward that "the second half of the year will shift to the market, and the market will enter the second stage, quarterly or even annual adjustment and concussion".

Analysis of capital market and industrial development form positive feedback Representative - gem.

The net profit of gem's parent company's shareholders increased by 37% in 2015 compared with that of the previous year, and the index share increased by 52% over the same period last year, which is higher than that of the Q2.

The continued expansion of demand, the addition of leveraged space and active mergers and acquisitions provide sufficient impetus for growth of gem.

1) the growth rate of GEM has exceeded 20% in 9 consecutive quarters, and Q2 grew by 32% in 2015. 2) the asset liability ratio increased from 30% in the same period last year to 37% and 3.

The short term rebound needs game sentiment and good luck; the medium term market can be selected for opportunities, and not afraid to buy a set of products. In September, short-term trading strategy: first, it is recommended that "non trading" investors and large institutions should have large funds. At the beginning of the month, they do not have to continue to catch up with short-term rebound. Instead, they can take advantage of the rally to adjust their positions and exchange shares, and concentrate more on the layout of the central line and the opportunity to pick them up.

Second, it is suggested that the trading "veteran" will continue to play the snooker method and band operation in the short term.

Investment opportunities: with the support of trading strategy, the opportunity of short wave band operation and the patience of the middle line.

(1) the China Daily verified the opportunities for high economic fundamentals, based on the bottom line thinking, "low buy" and moderate band, including catering and tourism, media, new energy vehicle industry chain, aquaculture, electronic components, and consumer service from bottom to top, as well as blue chips with strong competitiveness in the field of manufacturing segmentation.

(3) in the early stage, the theme investment that has suffered from the stock market crash and capitulation will continue to rebound in the short term, but after that, the market will encounter twists and turns and divide. It is suggested that the theme opportunity of combining innovation with fundamentals should be combined.

SOE reform, military industry (Beidou), sub new shares, Shanghai Disney and so on need to be eliminated.

In particular, the programmatic document on the reform of state-owned enterprises is about to be promulgated. At that time, investors need to guard against the "pure death" of pure concept speculation, and follow the basic logic and so on.

(4) short term stock price margin of security, and long-term opportunities to follow industrial capital: mergers and acquisitions, stocks that have recently been substantially increased by major shareholders / executives.

(5) short term technological rebound is not easy to operate after the collapse of growth stocks.

A considerable portion of TMT's share price has fallen from the high point of the year to more than 80%, and the probability of short-term game rebound has increased, but the difficulty of operation is still greater.

It is also suggested that we should focus on the basic trend and indicators of the medium and long term industries, and prudently arrange the layout according to the opportunity of mid - term selection.