The Underlying Reason For The Rise Of Cotton Is Still Possible.

What will be the effect of dumping? These days, more and more information about dumping and storage is heard, and we hear more and more confusion.

Throwing storage is very strong.

And uncertainty, any speculation without source is undesirable, especially when to throw, throw and price.

Therefore, the author thinks that some problems about throwing and storing can be considered more often.

It is important to note that many industries are worried.

Will break the current cotton supply and demand pattern, I think this is certain.

But this can not be equated with changes in supply and demand, and prices will fall.

Just imagine, if the national cotton price is set at 15000 yuan / ton, do you think the current price is "hit down" or "pull up"? Therefore, sometimes we worry too much about some vague things.

With the entry into mid May, the market is concerned with

The trend of discussions has increased again, especially in recent years, and speculation in the market has brought some uncertainties to the stable cotton prices.

Up to now, how much is the resources of Xinjiang cotton? According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the total output of cotton in the whole country is about 6 million 510 thousand tons this year. Judging from the number of lint processed, publicly checked and warehousing, the total output of cotton in Xinjiang in 2014/15 is not less than 4 million 400 thousand tons.

As of mid May, the sales of cotton in Xinjiang had been completed by about 65%, that is to say, the commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton was less than 440 * 0.35=154 million tons.

What's more, we need to pay attention to that the sale of hand picked cotton in Xinjiang this year is very fast. At present, it is difficult to find it in the market. Most of the rest are hand picked cotton and medium and low quality hand picked cotton.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, in 2015, the cotton planting area in China was 51 million 187 thousand mu, down 20.1% from the same period last year.

Judging from this data, it is closer to our estimate and is recognized by the market.

That is to say, about 30% of the national cotton reduction in 2015 is a big probability event.

Therefore, it is estimated that cotton output will reach 651 x 0.7=455.7 million tons in 2015.

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At present, the vitality of the yarn Market in Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces has declined, and the number of enquiries has also been reduced, no more than that in April.

Orders for thin and thin fabrics have been decreasing and sales of high count yarn have been reduced.

But sales and prices of bleached and highly matched medium yarn have been in good condition.

The feedback from Shandong and Henan is that the price quotations for conventional C40S ring spinning are quite different now. The price of the low grade point is 22000 yuan / ton, the mid-range quotation is 23000-24000 yuan / ton, the high-grade package bleaching is 24500-25500 yuan / ton, while the Hebei feed back polyester cotton yarn is now restored or the amount of the medium and low branch yarn has been restored, and the orders for the thick fabric of downstream factories have increased, such as the gauze card T65/C35 21*21 108*58*63, and the T65/C35 24*24 100*47*63 flat cloth orders have been relatively stable.

T65/C35 32S of a factory in Hebei quoted a price of 17500 yuan / ton, and the volume of shipments was general.