PTA: Cost Support Spot Small Finishing

Polyester polyester: Polyester quotation today is basically stable, part of the paction price slightly increased by 50-100 yuan / ton.

There are structural differences in the market of polyester and silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. POY is mostly 50%, better at 100%, FDY in 80-100%, and DTY in 100%.

Industrial chain operating rate: domestic PX device

In the vicinity of 71%, the operating rate of domestic PTA units was 67 (-0)%, the downstream polyester operation rate was 79 (+0.7)%, and weaving load was 70 (+0)%.

The total volume of China Textile City is 675 (-17) million meters, of which 453 of the long fiber cloth is sold (-12) million meters, and the short fiber cloth is 225 (-5) million meters, and the turnover of grey fabric is in the ascendant trend.

Stock: PTA factory 7-8 (0) days, polyester factory 7-8 7-8 (0) days;

Warehouse receipt + effective forecast 133392 (+16905) Zhang; sell sets to keep the warehouse volume to 34396 (+450) hand, buy a set of positions to 4505 (+0) hand.

Personal point of view: the number of new warehouse forecasts continues to increase rapidly, and huge warehouse receipts suppress the market. However, the 05 contracts still hold more than 500 thousand hand positions, far greater than the storage capacity.

In terms of fundamentals, crude oil and PX continued to rebound, cost support was better, while PTA industry load decreased, downstream load has returned to normal level, just need to pick up PTA products to digest.

A fundamental improvement is conducive to price stabilization, and PTA is limited.

It is suggested that the long line can continue to hold more and operate in a short and prudent way.

Related links:

Since late March, the price of Xinjiang long staple cotton has increased by 100-200 yuan / ton again. The 137, 237 and 336 grades of long staple cotton Awati's wool reclaim price is 27400-27500 yuan / ton, 26400-26500 yuan / ton, 25500-25700 yuan / ton respectively, and all the long staple cotton ginning plants and cotton enterprises are generally reluctant to sell. Some manufacturers do not offer foreign quotes.

It is understood that there are few cotton ginning plants that store 1000-2000 tons of long staple cotton around Awati, and there are few cotton shops with storage capacity of more than 4000 tons.

On the one hand, since the Chinese government issued only 894 thousand tons of 1% import tariff quotas for cotton in 2015, spinning enterprises need to weigh the use between fine cotton and long staple cotton. The international cotton traders and Chinese importers all coincidentally reduce the PIMA cotton consignment volume. The US SJV PIMA shipments have been greatly affected by the general strike of the workers on the West Coast ports of the United States. The 1 and February contracts for arriving in Hong Kong were postponed.

On the other hand, the production of domestic long staple cotton in 2014/15 is affected by the decline of planting area and bad weather. The yield per unit area has declined considerably compared with 2012 and 2013, and the industry is expected to be less than 50 thousand tons. According to USDA's calculation, China's annual long staple cotton consumption is over 150 thousand tons, and the gap is obvious.

In late March, the price of RMB SJV, PIMA, two, and Ji Zha 86 were concentrated at 29000-29200 yuan / ton and 28400-28600 yuan / ton, which was significantly higher than that of local enterprises in Xinjiang.

At present, there is little difference in the trend of long staple cotton, and the opinion that "not in place, not to the top and turning around early" is the main trend. Some traders buying staple cotton in the mainland in Xinjiang mainly rely on stock, not just "moving bricks and mortar bricks", but most of the cotton companies at high price are not planning.

High count yarn, high density and high density grey cloth, even though SJV PIMA cotton, Egypt JJA cotton and Israel PIMA cotton are blocked by import quotas, it is impossible to clear the sale by import quota. However, there are basically no "carry over" stocks in the cotton mill of Chen cotton or the domestic long staple cotton. However, the following factors need to be paid attention to: first, from the time point of view, there will be high-level shipments of Australian cotton in April, and arrive at the main port of China in May. The SM and GM grade will replace the Xinjiang low grade long staple cotton. At present, the SM and GM class offer price of 92-95 cents / pound in 5/6/7 month, though higher than that of the same grade cotton 10 cents / pound, but it is much lower than that of the SJV, or even PIMA. Some cotton mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shandong and other places indicated that the long staple cotton is now mainly for speculation, and the cost support is very weak. The key lies in the cotton business in 4-8.

The two is the expansion of long staple cotton planting in every cotton growing area in southern Xinjiang in 2015. The survey intention of some organizations shows that the area of long staple cotton in some cotton growing areas of Akesu is increased by more than 30%. It is foreseeable that if there is no extreme weather, the output of domestic long staple cotton will increase significantly in 2015/16, and will become a pressure on the long staple cotton market after May.

Three, since the second half of 2014, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Uzbekistan and other places, such as JC21S, JC32, JC40S yarn, and 40S, above, have significantly increased the bonded volume of vortex spinning and compact spinning. The impact of domestic 40S and 50S yarns has been increasing. Therefore, the advantages of Chinese cotton yarn have been shrunk to 50S and above, and the growth of long staple cotton consumption should not be overly optimistic.